Monthly Archives: December 2014
Prediction in the face of Deep Uncertainty
So what about prediction? What is the difference between a backward-looking approaches to decision-making and an anticipatory forward-looking ones (discussed here)? It’s partly about the difference between probability (and risk) and possibility (and deep uncertainty) and partly about people’s assumptions … Continue reading
Limits to modelling – Godel’s Incompleteness theorem
Agent-based modelling is often hailed as a way of modelling the future, predicting outcomes in social situations. But there are both hard limitations on what you can predict with modelling, and a lack of understanding of those limitations.This post examines … Continue reading
Possibility, Risk Asessments and dealing with Possible Futures
There is a fundamental flaw in most risk assessments – they are based on past data. That means that they are useless in the face of crises or deep uncertainty, in ambiguous situation or when faced with so-called ‘zero-day’ events. … Continue reading
Harnessing Dynamic Change 