Category Archives: Possibilities
Support Ukraine – Support Democracy …
… while you still can … Everybody has their take on what the Dictator of the Russian Federation wants. Everybody wonders what winning looks like. Many people have assessed how far he might go and when he might stop in … Continue reading
Populism ‘Fake News’, ‘Alternative Facts’ and Democracy
Are fake news and alternative facts undermining humanity’s ability to take decisive, often unpopular, action on difficult challenges Continue reading
Applying Complexity Thinking to the Real World
PRINCIPLES FOR [BRINGING ABOUT] EFFECTIVE CHANGE IN [REAL-WORLD] PRACTICE The eleven ‘Principles of Practice’ below have been derived from the experiences of practitioners (people who are responsible for bringing about real-world change) which are discussed in a companion book “Complexity … Continue reading
ISIS Ascendant – Because the West gave up its Winning Strategy in 2001?
A Winning Strategy Lost? The UK’s ‘Bin Laden Dossier‘ of 2001 reports that Bin Laden’s motivation was to wage jihad against countries (such as the USA and UK) engaging in ‘un-Islamic behaviour’. In his speeches, Bin Laden cited examples of … Continue reading
Prediction in the face of Deep Uncertainty
So what about prediction? What is the difference between a backward-looking approaches to decision-making and an anticipatory forward-looking ones (discussed here)? It’s partly about the difference between probability (and risk) and possibility (and deep uncertainty) and partly about people’s assumptions … Continue reading
Possibility, Risk Asessments and dealing with Possible Futures
There is a fundamental flaw in most risk assessments – they are based on past data. That means that they are useless in the face of crises or deep uncertainty, in ambiguous situation or when faced with so-called ‘zero-day’ events. … Continue reading
Transitioning to Adaptive, Forward-looking Ways-of-Working
In previous posts we talked about the different Aspects of adaptation and what this means for the learning that organisations, communities or individuals might have to do. What follows from this is an obvious question – how do you go … Continue reading
Effective Adaptation involves ‘Quadruple-Loop Learning’
We have been looking at how communities develop their ability to adapt to climate change. This is mostly about learning how to learn from change and for this people mostly talk about the ‘double-loop’ learning that follows from experience. In … Continue reading
Harnessing Dynamic Change 