Category Archives: Prediction
Support Ukraine – Support Democracy …
… while you still can … Everybody has their take on what the Dictator of the Russian Federation wants. Everybody wonders what winning looks like. Many people have assessed how far he might go and when he might stop in … Continue reading
Coronavirus (COVID-19) A unique response – Why?
[Updated March 2022, see square brackets] Coronavirus analysis: The world response makes no sense – it’s unique in the last 150 years of human history. Why would countries cripple their economies and shut down their populations? [Setting up conditions of … Continue reading
Populism ‘Fake News’, ‘Alternative Facts’ and Democracy
Are fake news and alternative facts undermining humanity’s ability to take decisive, often unpopular, action on difficult challenges Continue reading
Why are ‘unintended consequences’ almost inevitable?
We so often hear politicians, managers and those in positions of authority wailing about the ‘unintended consequences’ of their actions – or worse, excusing damaging outcomes with a shrug of the shoulders and saying “But they were unintended consequences …” … Continue reading
Applying Complexity Thinking to the Real World
PRINCIPLES FOR [BRINGING ABOUT] EFFECTIVE CHANGE IN [REAL-WORLD] PRACTICE The eleven ‘Principles of Practice’ below have been derived from the experiences of practitioners (people who are responsible for bringing about real-world change) which are discussed in a companion book “Complexity … Continue reading
ISIS Ascendant – Because the West gave up its Winning Strategy in 2001?
A Winning Strategy Lost? The UK’s ‘Bin Laden Dossier‘ of 2001 reports that Bin Laden’s motivation was to wage jihad against countries (such as the USA and UK) engaging in ‘un-Islamic behaviour’. In his speeches, Bin Laden cited examples of … Continue reading
Prediction in the face of Deep Uncertainty
So what about prediction? What is the difference between a backward-looking approaches to decision-making and an anticipatory forward-looking ones (discussed here)? It’s partly about the difference between probability (and risk) and possibility (and deep uncertainty) and partly about people’s assumptions … Continue reading
Limits to modelling – Godel’s Incompleteness theorem
Agent-based modelling is often hailed as a way of modelling the future, predicting outcomes in social situations. But there are both hard limitations on what you can predict with modelling, and a lack of understanding of those limitations.This post examines … Continue reading
Possibility, Risk Asessments and dealing with Possible Futures
There is a fundamental flaw in most risk assessments – they are based on past data. That means that they are useless in the face of crises or deep uncertainty, in ambiguous situation or when faced with so-called ‘zero-day’ events. … Continue reading
Organisation forms and Contextual Complexities
‘Contextual complexity’ provides an ‘objective’ perspective (as far as it can be) on the realities of the context and is the basis of exposing givens, realities and unspoken assumptions. When practitioners wish to establish their Contextual complexity (by undertaking ‘Symptom … Continue reading
Harnessing Dynamic Change 