Category Archives: Risk
When technology alienates people
A friend sent me an email this week expressing his rage at the way we are treated by big tech – that reasonable people are being made into ‘cyberoutlaws’. He said: “… everyday someone’s b**tard web site changes or there … Continue reading
Coronavirus (COVID-19) A unique response – Why?
[Updated March 2022, see square brackets] Coronavirus analysis: The world response makes no sense – it’s unique in the last 150 years of human history. Why would countries cripple their economies and shut down their populations? [Setting up conditions of … Continue reading
Why are ‘unintended consequences’ almost inevitable?
We so often hear politicians, managers and those in positions of authority wailing about the ‘unintended consequences’ of their actions – or worse, excusing damaging outcomes with a shrug of the shoulders and saying “But they were unintended consequences …” … Continue reading
ISIS Ascendant – Because the West gave up its Winning Strategy in 2001?
A Winning Strategy Lost? The UK’s ‘Bin Laden Dossier‘ of 2001 reports that Bin Laden’s motivation was to wage jihad against countries (such as the USA and UK) engaging in ‘un-Islamic behaviour’. In his speeches, Bin Laden cited examples of … Continue reading
Limits to modelling – Godel’s Incompleteness theorem
Agent-based modelling is often hailed as a way of modelling the future, predicting outcomes in social situations. But there are both hard limitations on what you can predict with modelling, and a lack of understanding of those limitations.This post examines … Continue reading
Possibility, Risk Asessments and dealing with Possible Futures
There is a fundamental flaw in most risk assessments – they are based on past data. That means that they are useless in the face of crises or deep uncertainty, in ambiguous situation or when faced with so-called ‘zero-day’ events. … Continue reading
Harnessing Dynamic Change 