Category Archives: Transition

Why are ‘unintended consequences’ almost inevitable?

We so often hear politicians, managers and those in positions of authority wailing about the ‘unintended consequences’ of their actions – or worse, excusing damaging outcomes with a shrug of the shoulders and saying “But they were unintended consequences …” … Continue reading

Posted in Appropriateness, Change, Contextual complexity, Experienced complexity, Influence, Natural complexity, Opportunities, Organisational forms, Practice, Prediction, Probability, Purposeful, Risk, Transformation, Transition, Unintended consequences | 2 Comments

Applying Complexity Thinking to the Real World

PRINCIPLES FOR [BRINGING ABOUT] EFFECTIVE CHANGE IN [REAL-WORLD] PRACTICE The eleven ‘Principles of Practice’ below have been derived from the experiences of practitioners (people who are responsible for bringing about real-world change) which are discussed in a companion book “Complexity … Continue reading

Posted in Adaptation, Agility, Appropriateness, Change, Complexity Demystified, Complexity-worthiness, Contextual complexity, Experienced complexity, Influence, Liveable cities, Natural complexity, Opportunities, Possibilities, Practice, Prediction, Purposeful, Reflection, Transformation, Transition, Unintended consequences | 2 Comments

ISIS Ascendant – Because the West gave up its Winning Strategy in 2001?

A Winning Strategy Lost? The UK’s ‘Bin Laden Dossier‘ of 2001 reports that Bin Laden’s motivation was to wage jihad against countries (such as the USA and UK) engaging in ‘un-Islamic behaviour’. In his speeches, Bin Laden cited examples of … Continue reading

Posted in Agility, Appropriateness, Change, Federation, Influence, Interoperability, Opportunities, Possibilities, Practice, Prediction, Probability, Relationships, Risk, Transformation, Transition | Leave a comment

War on Terror – always unwinnable?

The so-called ‘War on Terror‘ has a rather silly name – as daft as a ‘war on democracy’ or a ‘war on happiness’. Terrorism has been part of the human condition for millenia. As history shows, one person’s terrorist is … Continue reading

Posted in Appropriateness, Change, Influence, Practice, Transformation, Transition | 1 Comment

Limits to modelling – Godel’s Incompleteness theorem

Agent-based modelling is often hailed as a way of modelling the future, predicting outcomes in social situations. But there are both hard limitations on what you can predict with modelling, and a lack of understanding of those limitations.This post examines … Continue reading

Posted in Academic complexity, Adaptation, Agent-based modelling, Appropriateness, Complexity-worthiness, Godel's Incompleteness Theorem, Modelling, Prediction, Probability, Risk, Transformation, Transition | 1 Comment

Possibility, Risk Asessments and dealing with Possible Futures

There is a fundamental flaw in most risk assessments – they are based on past data. That means that they are useless in the face of crises or deep uncertainty, in ambiguous situation or when faced with so-called ‘zero-day’ events. … Continue reading

Posted in Adaptation, Appropriateness, Change, Complexity-worthiness, Organisational forms, Possibilities, Prediction, Probability, Risk, Transformation, Transition | Leave a comment

Organisation forms and Contextual Complexities

‘Contextual complexity’ provides an ‘objective’ perspective (as far as it can be) on the realities of the context and is the basis of exposing givens, realities and unspoken assumptions. When practitioners wish to establish their Contextual complexity (by undertaking ‘Symptom … Continue reading

Posted in Appropriateness, Complexity-worthiness, Experienced complexity, Federation, Interoperability, Organisational forms, Prediction, Relationships, System of systems, Transformation, Transition | 2 Comments

Complexity-Worthiness in a nutshell

Having ‘Complexity-worthiness’ means being able to access, deploy and employ capabilities which are appropriately matched to the nature of things being worked with – and being able to adapt them dynamically as circumstances change. Whether or not you use the … Continue reading

Posted in Adaptation, Appropriateness, Change, Complexity Demystified, Complexity-worthiness, Contextual complexity, Experienced complexity, Influence, Organisational forms, Practice, Reflection, Transformation, Transition | Leave a comment